I have never heard anyone say that Fred Thompson was unqualified to serve as president of the United States. I haven't heard too many people say that he was wrong on the issues. But I have heard from people are reluctant to vote for Fred because he (1) got in the race too late or (2) it's too late for him.
People like to sound smart. If I had a nickel for everyone who thought they were smart, then I'd be about as rich as Mitt Romney. People like to sound smart by talking about the horse race instead of talking about the issues. That is, they overthink the thing.
Like Crash Davis said to Nuke Laloosh in Bull Durham: "Don't think. It hurts the team."
That's right. Some people think TOO MUCH. The simple fact is that if people would just go into the voting booths in the Republican primary and vote their consciences, then Fred would win. So you just need to go out there and remind people to just vote their conscience.
And don't forget the Conservatives with Attitude! straw poll this coming Saturday in Woodbridge.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Middlesex Result Shows Rudy Dropping Even in Jersey
Rudy Giuliani, once the inevitable Rudy Giuliani, is now just plain old ex-mayor Rudy Giuliani. His campaign professionals are now working as volunteers, and his poll numbers are plummeting.
Yes, he won the Middlesex County GOP straw poll yesterday. He won it with 38% of the votes. Fred ran second with 16% and according to one conservative blogger had the best organization at the event. While he won, his margin and share of votes plummeted since the last time the Middlesex GOP held a straw poll.
Last year, he won with 60% of the vote. Thus, his share has plummeted by 22 points.
Today one of Rudy's key supporters in NJ, a member of what used to be the NJGOP machine, acknowledged that he and other Giuliani supporters should be thinking carefully about their second choice for president.
Rudy is beatable in New Jersey. Should Fred's surge continue, he might just be the man to upset Rudy here.
Yes, he won the Middlesex County GOP straw poll yesterday. He won it with 38% of the votes. Fred ran second with 16% and according to one conservative blogger had the best organization at the event. While he won, his margin and share of votes plummeted since the last time the Middlesex GOP held a straw poll.
Last year, he won with 60% of the vote. Thus, his share has plummeted by 22 points.
Today one of Rudy's key supporters in NJ, a member of what used to be the NJGOP machine, acknowledged that he and other Giuliani supporters should be thinking carefully about their second choice for president.
Rudy is beatable in New Jersey. Should Fred's surge continue, he might just be the man to upset Rudy here.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Fred Finishes Second at Middlesex GOP Convention
This morning the Friends of Fred Thompson made a statement in the Garden State. They showed that Fred has very strong support, even in the shadow of the city that Rudy Guiliani ruled for eight years.
The Middlesex County Republican Committee held its presidential preference convention this morning at the Forge in Woodbridge. The Thompson Team arrived early, and decorated the place with Fred08 signs. They distributed literature and worked the floor. And they got results.
Despite the fact that Senator McCain and Governor Romney have very high level support amongst the NJGOP - basically every machine Republican in New Jersey that is not supporting Rudy - their political muscle could not stand up to the Thompson surge.
When the convention cast its votes, Fred finished second behind the favorite of the NJGOP machine, Rudy Guiliani. Congratulations Fred.
The Middlesex County Republican Committee held its presidential preference convention this morning at the Forge in Woodbridge. The Thompson Team arrived early, and decorated the place with Fred08 signs. They distributed literature and worked the floor. And they got results.
Despite the fact that Senator McCain and Governor Romney have very high level support amongst the NJGOP - basically every machine Republican in New Jersey that is not supporting Rudy - their political muscle could not stand up to the Thompson surge.
When the convention cast its votes, Fred finished second behind the favorite of the NJGOP machine, Rudy Guiliani. Congratulations Fred.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Fred Picks up some delegates in Wyoming
It seems that the punditocracy has forgotten how a nomination is won. A nomination is won by the candidate with the most delegates. So far, Governor Huckabee has ZERO delegates. Under GOP rules, the caucuses don't determine delegates in Iowa. In the most unreported story of the day, Fred Thomspon came in second in the Wyoming GOP caucuses, winning two delegates to the national convention.
Mitt Romney won. There are two reasons for Mitt's victory: (1) he used his money to flood Wyoming Republicans with mail; and (2) there is a large Mormon presence in Wyoming.
That being said, Fred's consistent conservative message won him actual, real-live, in-the-flesh Republican delegates. Combined with his solid third place finish in Iowa and his victory in the New Hampshire debate last night, the little quiet win in Wyoming should keep the Good Ship Thompson on course toward the inevitable victories on Super Tuesday.
Mitt Romney won. There are two reasons for Mitt's victory: (1) he used his money to flood Wyoming Republicans with mail; and (2) there is a large Mormon presence in Wyoming.
That being said, Fred's consistent conservative message won him actual, real-live, in-the-flesh Republican delegates. Combined with his solid third place finish in Iowa and his victory in the New Hampshire debate last night, the little quiet win in Wyoming should keep the Good Ship Thompson on course toward the inevitable victories on Super Tuesday.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Romney in Huge Trouble; Fred meets expectations
Mitt Romney spent a small fortune to win 24% of the vote in Iowa, putting him in a must-win scenario in New Hampshire. It's not just the second place finish, but the fact that he was closer to third than to second that gives him the whiff of death.
If the numbers hold up, Fred is meeting expectations with a solid third place finish in Iowa. Conventional wisdom says that there are three tickets out of Iowa, and Fred appears to have one of them.
If the numbers hold up, Fred is meeting expectations with a solid third place finish in Iowa. Conventional wisdom says that there are three tickets out of Iowa, and Fred appears to have one of them.
Showdown Tonight in Iowa
At 7:00 pm Central Time, some 80,000 Republicans in Iowa will go to caucus to determine the Iowa GOP's presidential preference. They will sit down at a location in their precinct, take care of some local business, then discuss their presidential preferences.
After the discussion, they will vote by paper ballot.
One thing is for sure: The race will not be settled in Iowa.
If either Huckabee or Romney win, they were supposed to do well, after all. A win or a strong second in Iowa does not propel them to the nomination. It merely keeps them in the game. But what happens if Fred wins?
After the discussion, they will vote by paper ballot.
One thing is for sure: The race will not be settled in Iowa.
If either Huckabee or Romney win, they were supposed to do well, after all. A win or a strong second in Iowa does not propel them to the nomination. It merely keeps them in the game. But what happens if Fred wins?
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
"Friday Night Lights"
The book of "Friday Night Lights" was most directly about an elite high school football team from the Texas oil patch. There were, however, some high quality political insights that help us understand what Mike Dukakis and John Kerry lacked, and what Mike Huckabee has.
The season was 1988. George HW Bush was running for president in an era in which the Texas-Louisiana oil patch was in a severe depression (not recession) because oil was at an all time low, as low as $11 per barrel, due to Republican policies, namely the mutual defense treaty that President Reagan signed with Saudi Arabia in 1982. Still, Bush 41 managed to win the oil patch in a convincing manner. How?
Author H.G. Bissinger was at his most eloquent when he penned the following passage:
"Dukakis forces in Texas thought they could win the state on the basis of the economy. They thought that the issues of gun control and the Pledge of Allegiance were emotional fads that would quickly die out. They never thought that Bush's rhetoric, a kinder, gentler version of the 'Morton Downey Show' would have much lasting effect. . .
Perhaps just once Dukakis should have left the rarfied atmosphere of Boston and Harvard that seemed to entrap him no matter where he was, hopped in a car by himself, and taken a drive down one of those lonely, flat-as-a-pancake roads to the gleaming lights of a Friday night football game. . . . He could have pulled down his tie and unbuttoned his collar. He could have gone to the concession stand to eat a frito pie and a chili dog . . . he could have sat in a corner of the stands to listen to th econversations around him as well as take note of the prayers both before the game and after. . .
There was a heartbeat in those stands that dotted the Friday nights of Texas and Oklahoma and Ohio and Pennsylvania and Florida and all of America like a galaxy of stars, a giant, lurking heartbeat.
Michael Dukakis never heard that sound, and even if he had he probably would have dismissed it as some silly tribal ritual rite practiced in the Amercian boondocks by people who made no difference. But his opponent didn't make the same mistake."
Gifted politicians understand the heartbeat that lives under those Friday night lights. Bill Clinton understood it. Our current president understood it. Mike Huckabee understands it. They knew how to connect to the people in whom that heart beat, and by connecting on that spiritual level, they could lead and win despite their shortcomings on the issues.
The fact is that Mike Huckabee is connecting to Republicans through religion and values, and is doing so in a way that has obscured his very liberal record on taxes, government spending, criminal justice and illegal immigration. He has lured the Values Voters with the siren song of the Right to Life and preservation of the family, and by parading around his own religion. It is a naked appeal to white, evangelical and mostly southern, rural voters.
It is time for Republicans to awaken from their trance, to steer away from the siren call before it is too late. Fred Thompson understands family values; he has lived family values; he has consistently voted the right way on family values.
For goodness sake, he has a 100% voting record on the Right to Life. He has been endorsed by Right to Life groups all over the country. He has been consistent and strong in favor of the Second Amendment. He has done those things.
But he has not sacrificed in other areas! His record on taxes and government spending would do President Reagan proud. His proposals for Social Security reform are genius. His proposals for tax reform are the best out there. His proposals for illegal immigration reform are the only ones that can be trusted.
We all need to drop what we are doing and win this campaign.
The season was 1988. George HW Bush was running for president in an era in which the Texas-Louisiana oil patch was in a severe depression (not recession) because oil was at an all time low, as low as $11 per barrel, due to Republican policies, namely the mutual defense treaty that President Reagan signed with Saudi Arabia in 1982. Still, Bush 41 managed to win the oil patch in a convincing manner. How?
Author H.G. Bissinger was at his most eloquent when he penned the following passage:
"Dukakis forces in Texas thought they could win the state on the basis of the economy. They thought that the issues of gun control and the Pledge of Allegiance were emotional fads that would quickly die out. They never thought that Bush's rhetoric, a kinder, gentler version of the 'Morton Downey Show' would have much lasting effect. . .
Perhaps just once Dukakis should have left the rarfied atmosphere of Boston and Harvard that seemed to entrap him no matter where he was, hopped in a car by himself, and taken a drive down one of those lonely, flat-as-a-pancake roads to the gleaming lights of a Friday night football game. . . . He could have pulled down his tie and unbuttoned his collar. He could have gone to the concession stand to eat a frito pie and a chili dog . . . he could have sat in a corner of the stands to listen to th econversations around him as well as take note of the prayers both before the game and after. . .
There was a heartbeat in those stands that dotted the Friday nights of Texas and Oklahoma and Ohio and Pennsylvania and Florida and all of America like a galaxy of stars, a giant, lurking heartbeat.
Michael Dukakis never heard that sound, and even if he had he probably would have dismissed it as some silly tribal ritual rite practiced in the Amercian boondocks by people who made no difference. But his opponent didn't make the same mistake."
Gifted politicians understand the heartbeat that lives under those Friday night lights. Bill Clinton understood it. Our current president understood it. Mike Huckabee understands it. They knew how to connect to the people in whom that heart beat, and by connecting on that spiritual level, they could lead and win despite their shortcomings on the issues.
The fact is that Mike Huckabee is connecting to Republicans through religion and values, and is doing so in a way that has obscured his very liberal record on taxes, government spending, criminal justice and illegal immigration. He has lured the Values Voters with the siren song of the Right to Life and preservation of the family, and by parading around his own religion. It is a naked appeal to white, evangelical and mostly southern, rural voters.
It is time for Republicans to awaken from their trance, to steer away from the siren call before it is too late. Fred Thompson understands family values; he has lived family values; he has consistently voted the right way on family values.
For goodness sake, he has a 100% voting record on the Right to Life. He has been endorsed by Right to Life groups all over the country. He has been consistent and strong in favor of the Second Amendment. He has done those things.
But he has not sacrificed in other areas! His record on taxes and government spending would do President Reagan proud. His proposals for Social Security reform are genius. His proposals for tax reform are the best out there. His proposals for illegal immigration reform are the only ones that can be trusted.
We all need to drop what we are doing and win this campaign.
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